Disposable income and acquisition costs as drivers of CASCO insurance demand: an empirical analysis of the Polish market

Norbert  Duczkowski; Adam  Śliwiński

doi:https://doi.org/10.59139/ps.2026.01.2

Norbert Duczkowski SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Management and Finance, Institute of Risk and Financial Markets, Department of Risk and Insurance, ul. Madalińskiego 6/8, 02–513 Warszawa, Poland ORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4543-2678 , Adam Śliwiński SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Management and Finance, Institute of Risk and Financial Markets, Department of Risk and Insurance, ul. Madalińskiego 6/8, 02–513 Warszawa, Poland ORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7817-0101 Przegląd Statystyczny. Statistical Review, vol. 73, 2026, 1, pages: 30-55 Published online: 15 May 2026 DOI https://doi.org/10.59139/ps.2026.01.2 Citation: Duczkowski, N., & Śliwiński, A. (2026). Disposable income and acquisition costs as drivers of CASCO insurance demand: an empirical analysis of the Polish market. Przegląd Statystyczny. Statistical Review, 73(1), 30–55. https://doi.org/10.59139/ps.2026.01.2.

10 Views 5 Downloads

ARTICLE

(English) PDF

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the determinants of demand for voluntary comprehensive car insurance (CASCO) in Poland. The study aims to identify the impact of acquisition costs and household disposable income on insurance uptake. Utilizing a multilayer perceptron neural network model, the research analyzes the relationship between motor insurance expenditures and two key variables: the disposable income of households and the acquisition costs ratio between voluntary CASCO and Mandatory Third-Party Liability insurance. The findings, validated by robust diagnostic tests, a linear ordinary least squares model as a benchmark and a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, reveal that both factors are statistically significant predictors of demand. The results indicate that the expansion of the CASCO market in Poland is driven not only by rising consumer affluence but also by the commission ratio, which motivates intermediaries to prioritize voluntary products. This suggests a supply push mechanism where distribution costs shape market dynamics.

KEYWORDS

motor insurance, CASCO, disposable income, acquisition costs, neural networks

JEL

G22, D12, C45, L14

REFERENCES

Awunyo-Vitor, D. (2012). Comprehensive Motor Insurance Demand in Ghana: Evidence From Kumasi Metropolis. Management, 2(4), 80–86. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.mm.20120204.01.

Balewski, B., & Janowski, A. (2008). Prowizyjny system wynagradzania agentów ubezpieczeń na życie – narzędzie motywacji czy patologia?. In Z. Jankowska (Ed.), Dysfunkcje i patologie w sferze zarządzania zasobami ludzkimi (vol. 2). Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego.

Bankowy Fundusz Gwarancyjny. (2025). Polski rynek ubezpieczeń komunikacyjnych. https://bfg.pl/wp-content/uploads/polski-rynek-ubezpieczen-komunikacyjnych-2024q3.pdf.

Beenstock, M., Dickinson, G., & Khajuria, S. (1988). The Relationship Between Property-Liability Insurance Premiums and Income: An International Analysis. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 55(2), 259–272. https://doi.org/10.2307/253327.

Browne, M. J., Chung, J., & Frees, E. W. (2000). International Property-Liability Insurance Consumption. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 67(1), 73–90. https://doi.org/10.2307/253677.

Chen, Y., & Chen, D. (2013). The review and analysis of compulsory insurance. Insurance Markets and Companies: Analyses and Actuarial Computations, 4(1), 6–17. https://businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/insurance-markets-and-companies/issue-201/the-review-and-analysis-of-compulsory-insurance.

Cummins, J. D., & Doherty, N. A. (2006). The Economics of Insurance Intermediaries. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(3), 359–396. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00180.x.

Dąbrowski, I., & Śliwiński, A. (2016). Economics of Insurance. Oficyna Wydawnicza SGH.

Dragos, S. L. (2014). Life and non-life insurance demand: the different effects of influence factors in emerging countries from Europe and Asia. Economic Research – Ekonomska Istraživanja, 27(1), 169–180. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2014.952112.

Dragos, C. M., & Dragos, S. L. (2017). Estimating Consumers’ Behaviour in Motor Insurance Using Discrete Choice Models. E+M Ekonomie a Management, 20(4), 88–102. https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2017-4-007.

Dragos, S. L., Mare, C., Mure?an, G. M., & Purcel, A. A. (2023). European motor insurance demand: a spatial approach of its effects and key determinants. Economic Research – Ekonomska Istraživanja, 36(2), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2132348.

Duczkowski, N. (2021a). Wykorzystanie finansów behawioralnych do opisu wybranych zjawisk na polskim rynku ubezpieczeniowym. Zeszyty Naukowe Polskiego Towarzystwa Ekonomicznego w Zielonej Górze, (15), 84–102. https://doi.org/10.26366/PTE.ZG.2021.205.

Duczkowski, N. (2021b). Zastosowanie rozkładu ?-stabilnego do modelowania zmian cen ubezpieczeń. Wiadomości Ubezpieczeniowe, (2), 109–127. https://doi.org/10.33995/wu2021.2.7.

Duczkowski, N. (2022). Application of reduced social welfare functions for estimating household insurance expenditures in Poland. Wiadomości Ubezpieczeniowe, (1), 75–96. https://doi.org/10.33995/wu2022.1.5.

Esho, N., Kirievsky, A., Ward, D., & Zurbruegg, R. (2004). Law and the Determinants of Property- Casualty Insurance. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 71(2), 265–283. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-4367.2004.00089.x.

Feyen, E., Lester, R. R., & de Rezende Rocha, R. (2013). What drives the development of the insurance sector? An empirical analysis based on a panel of developed and developing countries (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5572). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID3076016_code2758723.pdf?abstractid=3076016&mirid=1&type=2.

Główny Urząd Statystyczny. (2010–2025). Budżety gospodarstw domowych 2009–2024.

Harrington, S. E., & Niehaus, G. (1998). Race, Redlining, and Automobile Insurance Prices. The Journal of Business, 71(3), 439–469. https://doi.org/10.1086/209751.

Hsu, Y. C., Chou, P. L., Chen, Y. M. J. J., & Lin, J. J. (2014). Mixed logit model of voluntary selection of automobile insurance. Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences, 35(5–6), 503–528. https://doi.org/10.1080/02522667.2014.961823.

Inteliace Research. (2014). Raport z badania: Prowizje agentów w kanale małych i średnich multiagencji przy sprzedaży ubezpieczeń komunikacyjnych. https://www.inteliace.com/files/2014/000123_PROWIZJE_MULTI-AGENTOW_UBEZPIECZENIA_KOMUNIKACYJNE.pdf.

Kawiński, M., & Szumlicz, T. (2023). Insurance Under- and Over-performance: The Case of Comprehensive Car Insurance in Poland. Contemporary Economics, 17(4), 443–455. https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.521.

Kumaga, S. B. (2016). Determinants of Comprehensive Motor Insurance Demand: Evidence from the Recent Premium Tariff Increase in Ghana. University of Ghana. https://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/bitstreams/048c0192-e5d1-4d1f-91c1-61f39aa4d6d2/download.

Lisowski, J., & Zieniewicz, M. (2015). Zmiany w kanale agencyjnym na rynku ubezpieczeniowym w Polsce. Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska. Sectio H (Oeconomia), 49(4), 335–345. https://doi.org/10.17951/h.2015.49.4.335.

Marson, J., & Ferris, K. (2023). The problem of VNUK and the EU response: a critique of the law on compulsory motor vehicle insurance. Journal of Business Law, 8, 639–660. https://shura.shu.ac.uk/31252/.

New Direction. (2024). Analyzing Changes in Insurance Distribution in Europe. A Comprehensive Study. https://newdirection.online/publication/analyzing_changes_in_insurance_distribution_in_europe_a_comprehensive_study.

Park, S. C., & Lemaire, J. (2012). The impact of culture on the demand for non-life insurance. ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, 42(2), 501–527. https://doi.org/10.2143/AST.42.2.2182806.

Reifner, U., Neuberger, D., Rissi, R., Riefa, C., Knobloch, M., Clerc-Renaud, S., & Finger, C. (2013). Study on remuneration structures of financial services intermediaries and conflicts of interest (MARKT/2012/026/H) Final Report. Institut für Finanzdienstleistungen e.V. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2016-12/1311-remuneration-structures-study_en_0.pdf.

Sherden, W. A. (1984). An Analysis of the Determinants of the Demand for Automobile Insurance. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 51(1), 49–62. https://doi.org/10.2307/252800.

Szymańska, A. (2020). Udział kosztów działalności ubezpieczeniowej w składce zakładów działu II w Polsce. Finanse i Prawo Finansowe. Journal of Finance and Financial Law, (2), 115–128, https://doi.org/10.18778/2391-6478.2.26.08.

Śliwiński, A. (2011). Popyt na ubezpieczenia na życie w świetle badań światowych. Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu. Finanse – nowe wyzwania teorii i praktyki. Ubezpieczenia, (175), 150–160. https://www.dbc.wroc.pl/Content/73185/Sliwinski_Popyt_Na_Ubezpieczenia_Na_Zycie_w_Swietle.pdf.

Śliwiński, A. (2016). Popyt na ubezpieczenia na życie – przegląd badań światowych. In S. Nowak, A. Z. Nowak & A. Sopoćko (Eds.), Polski rynek ubezpieczeń na tle kryzysów społeczno- -gospodarczych (pp. 110–125). Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego. https://doi.org/10.7172/978-83-65402-34-9.2016.wwz.11.

Śliwiński, A. (2019). Rola ubezpieczeń w gospodarce. Oficyna Wydawnicza SGH.

Śliwiński, A., Dropia, J., & Duczkowski, N. (2021). Risk Factors Affecting Bancassurance Development in Poland. Risks, 9(7), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9070130.

Ustawa z dnia 11 września 2015 r. o działalności ubezpieczeniowej i reasekuracyjnej (Dz.U. 2015 poz. 1844).

Widura, R. (2009). Commission-Based Pay – Three Essays on German Insurance Tied Agents [Doctoral dissertation, Universität zu Köln]. https://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/2933/1/Dissertation_Robert_Widura.pdf.

Wilder, J. M. (2004). Competing for the Effort of a Common Agent: Contingency Fees in Commercial Insurance (US Department of Justice Antitrust Division Economic Analysis Group Working Paper No. EAG03-4). https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.418061.

Ziemiak, M. P. (2019). Wynagrodzenie pośrednika ubezpieczeniowego w kontekście ustawy o dystrybucji ubezpieczeń. Zagadnienia wybrane. Wiadomości Ubezpieczeniowe, (2), 35–49. https://doi.org/10.33995/wu2019.2.4.